Nigeria's Imperatives

As Africa's largest oil producer, Nigeria faces significant economic and environmental challenges. The nation's heavy reliance on oil exports enhanced its GDP but also escalates its carbon footprint.

Current Nigeria Public Transportation

Basic Context

• Nigeria, with a population of 218 million and a growth rate of 2.4%, has a GDP of $473 billion USD and a GDP per capita of $2,162 USD.

• Now, only 2 states in Nigeria have public transportation service. In Lagos, the average fare per drop is around $0.5.

The Imperative for Going Green

• High Cost of Compliance: The economic impact of not transitioning could be severe due to the global shift towards carbon tracking and pricing.

  • If Nigeria fails to reduce the carbon footprint, it may face international trade barriers, such as carbon tariffs on goods produced with high emissions.

  • Nigeria might incur increased costs from carbon credits and penalties needed to offset the emission. The cost could reach into the billions of dollars annually.

• Reduce dependecy on Fossil Fuels: Oil has become the sole source of income for the country, accounting for 90% of its national revenue, with its contribution declining as oil prices decrease.

  • Nigeria can enhance the economy resilience by reducing vulnerability to oil prices, creating new jobs, attracting investments in sustainable infrastructure, and stabilizing electricity prices.

  • Transportation electrification aligns with global environmental targets, which is essential to the sustainable development, avoid carbon tariffs and maintain international competitiveness.

The Imperative for Distributed Off-Grid E-Bus System

• Undeveloped Power Grid: Nigeria's power grid is overcentralized and unstable with limited capacity and reach, necessitates off-grid decentralized photovoltaic solutions, especially for critical services like public transportation.

  • The overly centralized power grid means that an outage can affect the whole nation. In 2022, the national power grid had collapsed 22 times, causing exorbitant production and living costs.

  • Nigeria limited power capacity can only support a few industrial activities. However, the off-grid public transportation not only stabilizes the grid but also the transportation itself.

  • Three-quarters of Nigerians living in rural areas lack access to electricity. Faced with the high grid construction and fossil fuel costs, they can only rely on micro grid solar energy.

• Informal Transportation Networks: The public transportation is chaotic, inefficient, and unsafe with high level of pollution. It highlights the need for a decentralized public approach that can offer better service and managment with reliability, adaptability, and zero emissions.

  • Nigeria is estimated to have 100 million urban population. The increasing population and the lack of infrastructure has led to severe congestion, pollution, and traffic hazards.

  • Lagos bus system is highly compromised by informal bodies without standardized routes, schedules, fares, and regulations. It exploit passengers and are vulnerable to external risks.

  • Nigeria demands to accommodate diverse transportation needs. A decentralized community-owned system can enhance participation, foster a sense of ownership, and meet special needs.

The Imperative for Meeting the Growing Demand

• Growing Middle Class Needs Support: From 2000 to 2015, Nigeria's reliance on oil drove rapid growth, fostering a significant middle class. However, recent crises in debt, energy, and inflation have shrunk this group from 38% to 23%, underscoring the need for reliable electricity, public services, and transaction support.

  • A 2022 survey by the African Development Bank shows that the middle class makes up about 23% of the population in Nigeria

  • The Nigeria internet population was 83.94 million in 2022 and is expected to reach 117 million by 2027.

• that demands better and more reliable transportation options. However, the existing infrastructure, especially in terms of power supply, is insufficient to meet these growing needs. This discrepancy between demand and supply highlights the urgent need for substantial investments in transportation and energy infrastructure.

• Constrained Capacity for Swift Deployment:

  • The traditional transportation operating model faces challenges in expansion.

  • Limited Funding Resources: Nigeria could incur costs of approximately $15 billion over the next decade to integrate renewable energy sources and upgrade existing grid systems. Considering further application and

  • In February 2023, the country's inflation rate reached 29.9%, marking its highest level in history.